Analyst | Editor: Carroll | Produced by Bi Tongtong |
Since this year, the good news about central bank digital currencies has not stopped. In early April, the central bank proposed to strengthen top-level design and unswervingly promote the research and development of legal digital currency. Subsequently, the four major banks, the People's Bank of China, the Agricultural and Industrial Development Bank of China, the Postal Savings Bank of China, and China CITIC Bank, all reported the internal testing of digital currencies. Judging from China Construction Bank’s latest test on August 28, the digital currency personal wallet publicly launched by its mobile banking APP can support digital currency payment, collection, scanning, transfer and other functions. At present, digital currency has been tested in closed pilot tests in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiongan, Chengdu and future Winter Olympics scenarios.
The progress of central bank digital currency has attracted market attention to digital currency concept stocks. According to previous statistics, in April, influenced by the central bank’s stance and the news of the internal testing of the four major banks, digital currency concept stocks rose sharply. The stock price rose by an average of 15%, institutions had a net inflow of 270 million, and the valuation increased by an average of 12%. So, as testing continues to deepen, are digital currency concept stocks still "crazy"? This article will conduct a retrospective analysis of the interim reports of 27 digital currency concept stocks based on Wind data, showing the full picture of digital currency concept stocks in the first half of the year.
The average total operating income is 433 million yuan, and the average net profit is 27 million yuan.
According to statistics, the median total operating income of 27 listed companies with digital currency concepts in the first half of this year was approximately 433 million yuan. The total operating income of companies in this industry varies widely. Among them, Zhidu Holdings had the highest total operating income in the first half of the year, with revenue of approximately 5.974 billion yuan. Secondly, the total operating income of China Information and Omar Electric in the first half of the year exceeded 3.5 billion yuan.
These three companies are involved in digital currency-related industries and businesses. Zhidu Shares mainly focuses on the possibility of the integration and development of large-scale alliance chains and central bank digital currencies, and will provide blockchain technology support for the wider application of central bank digital currencies; China Information participates in the digital currency tests of major state-owned banks, involving encrypted numbers Currency electronic payment scenario, and completed the research and development of a digital wallet system based on blockchain technology; Omar Electric participated in the prototype design of the central bank’s digital currency.
In addition, the total operating income of six companies including Guangdian Express, Hailian Jinhui, Hang Seng Electronics, Lakala and New World in the first half of the year also exceeded 1.5 billion yuan. In addition, the total operating income of 12 companies including Kelan Software, Digital Certification, and Sifang Jingchuang in the first half of the year was 433 million yuan lower than the average. Among them, the total operating income of the four companies Kekexin, Goertek Software, Yuyin Shares and Zhongying Internet is only slightly more than 100 million yuan.
According to the exchange’s Q&A records, Diweixun said in response to investors’ questions in April this year that the company currently has no technology research and development business in digital currency. In July this year, when answering questions from investors, Geer Software also stated that the company was not currently involved in central bank digital currency. Regarding the currency business, Zhongying Internet stated in responses to investor questions in April and July this year that Cailiang Technology did not participate in the research and development and internal testing of the central bank’s digital currency.
From the perspective of net profit, the median net profit of 27 digital currency concept companies in the first half of the year was approximately 27 million yuan, which was higher than the average net profit of blockchain concept stocks in the first quarter of 11 million yuan. Among them, 19 companies achieved profitability. Lakala has the highest net profit, reaching approximately 439 million yuan, followed by Guangdian Express and Hundsun Electronics, with net profits exceeding 300 million yuan each.
There are 8 other companies that suffered losses, among which Risperton and Zhidou Co., Ltd. suffered the most serious losses, with losses of approximately 134 million yuan and 114 million yuan respectively. However, the net profit calculated this time includes non-recurring gains and losses. If the company's business is greatly affected by the epidemic or short-term fluctuations in the capital market, its net profit may be greatly affected. For example, Zhidu Shares achieved higher total operating income. At the same time, due to continued buying and increasing holdings of Guoguang Electric, net profit turned negative.
Judging from the year-on-year changes in net profit in the second quarter, the performance of digital currency concept stocks has been significantly boosted this year. According to statistics, the median year-on-year increase in net profit of digital currency concept stocks in the second quarter was approximately 31.9%, a significant increase.
Among the 18 companies whose net profits increased year-on-year in the second quarter, Changliang Technology and Hailian Jinhui had the most significant growth rates in the second quarter, reaching 855% and 696% respectively. In addition, Feitian Chengxin, Weishitong, Xinkaipu and Yuyin shares all increased by more than 100% year-on-year. Among the remaining nine companies whose net profits fell year-on-year in the second quarter, Divixun, Geer Software, Golden Crown, and Digital Certification all experienced declines of more than 100%. Golden Crown shares, which suffered the largest decline, fell 217.10% year-on-year.
The stock price has fallen back to the level at the beginning of the year, with average daily trading volume reaching 250 million yuan.
In April, when digital currency was frequently rumored to be positive, the stock price of digital currency concept stocks increased by an average of 14.99% in half a month (from April 1 to April 17), which was approximately twice the average increase of the "blockchain" concept over the same period. However, if the time dimension is expanded to the first half of the year, the median share price increase of digital currency concept stocks is only 0.63%.
Unlike the general rise in the sector in April, although the average growth rate of digital currency concept stocks in the first half of the year has basically fallen back to the level at the beginning of the year, the differentiation within the sector is very significant. For example, the stock prices of Hundsun Electronics, Yuxin Technology, and Xinkaipu all increased by more than 50% in the first half of the year, especially Hundsun Electronics, which rose by 80.99%, which is an eye-catching performance. Secondly, the stock prices of Changliang Technology, Gao Weida, Geer Software, Radio and Television Express, etc. also increased by more than 30%, which was much better than other stocks in the sector.
On the other hand, Golden Crown shares fell 37.14% in the first half of the year, becoming the concept stock with the largest decline. Omar Electrical Appliances, Divixun, Hailian Jinhui, Visteon, Xinguodu, Yingshisheng, and Royal Silver also all fell by more than 15% in the first half of the year, becoming the stocks with the largest decline in the sector. Among them, Hailian Jinhui, which fell 17.24% in the first half of the year, has experienced huge "ebbs and flows". It was the highest-rising concept stock in the April craze, rising more than 40% in two weeks, but it had fallen by the end of the first half. Become a stock with a larger decline.
Compared with the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, the median increase of digital currency concept stocks relative to the Shanghai Composite Index in the first half of the year was 2.78%, which was slightly better than the performance of the broader market. Among them, 14 concept stocks outperformed the market. Hang Seng Electronics outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 83.14% during the same period. Yuxin Technology and Xinkaip also outperformed the market by more than 50 percentage points. Another 13 concept stocks underperformed the market, especially Golden Crown Shares, Yuyin Shares, Xinguodu, Omar Electric Co., Ltd., etc. Compared with the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period, its share price fell by more than 17%.
Judging from the trading volume of digital currency concept stocks in the first half of the year, the sector as a whole does not lack liquidity, with the median daily average trading volume being 254 million yuan. Among them, Hang Seng Electronics is the most liquid stock, with an average daily trading volume of 1.666 billion yuan, and Guangdian Express has an average daily trading volume of 973 million yuan. They are also concept stocks with good liquidity. Secondly, the average daily trading volume of Changliang Technology and Sifang Jingchuang has exceeded 500 million, which matches their market value of tens of billions and is basically the average level of market liquidity.
In contrast, the average daily trading volume of Divixun and Xinchen Technology in the first half of the year was less than 100 million yuan, and Yuyin Shares and Gore Software were both less than 150 million yuan. They are relatively illiquid stocks on the market.
Institutional outflows in the first half of the year were 12.3 billion yuan, but valuations continued to rise
In the first half of the year, institutional funds outflowed a total of 12.37 billion yuan from digital currency concept stocks, which was completely opposite to the net inflow of 270 million yuan during the April boom. Among the 27 concept stocks, only 5 had net inflows of institutional funds in the first half of the year, including Zhidu Holdings, Goertek Software, Davison, Yuyin Holdings, Digital Certification, etc. However, the net inflow of institutional funds into these concept stocks did not exceed 100 million yuan, and the largest net inflow into Zhidu shares was only 77 million yuan.
Among the remaining 22 concept stocks with net outflows of institutional funds, Guangdian Express and Hundsun Electronics were the concept stocks with the largest net outflows in the first half of the year, reaching 2.637 billion yuan and 2.402 billion yuan respectively. Secondly, Guadong, Changliang Technology, and New World are also concept stocks with large institutional capital outflows, each exceeding 700 million yuan.
Despite the overall net outflow of institutional funds, the valuations of 27 digital currency concept stocks generally rose in the second quarter.
From the perspective of price-to-earnings ratio (PE), the average valuation of digital currency concept stocks on June 30 was about 53.27 times, and the median valuation increase in the second quarter was about 24.48%, which is generally at a high level. Among them, Divisun had a higher increase, reaching 286.43%. The PE on June 30 was approximately 254 times, which was at a relatively high level. Similarly, Hengbao Shares and Hundsun Electronics are concept stocks with higher valuations and higher growth rates. Also worthy of attention are Omar Electric Appliances and Yuyin Shares, whose valuations fell by more than 200% in the second quarter.
Judging from the price-to-book ratio (PB) valuation that can better evaluate high-risk companies, the average valuation of digital currency concept stocks in the second quarter on June 30 was 6.89 times, with a median increase of approximately 25.50%. Generally speaking, it is also in a high position.
Among them, Zhongying Internet’s valuation on June 30 was approximately 36.17 times, with an increase of 1948.16% in the second quarter. Secondly, the growth rates of Changliang Technology and Hailian Jinhui are also relatively high, both exceeding 90%. Moreover, Changliang Technology’s PB on June 30 was approximately 12.97 times, which was higher than the sector high. Also worthy of attention is Hundsun Electronics. On June 30, PB was approximately 28.30 times, making it the concept stock with the highest valuation in the sector.
In addition, for companies with heavy technological attributes, R&D investment is also an important dimension to measure the company's growth capabilities. Among the 27 digital currency concept companies, Hundsun Electronics was the company that invested the most in R&D in the first half of the year, with R&D expenses of approximately 593 million yuan, accounting for 36.6% of total operating income. Secondly, there are five companies with R&D expenses exceeding 100 million yuan: Omar Electric, China Radio and Television Express, China Information, New World, and Yingshisheng. However, only Yingshisheng’s R&D expenses account for close to 40%, and the R&D expenses of the other four companies do not exceed 8% of total operating income. In addition, although the absolute value of the R&D investment of Geer Software, Digital Certification, and Sifang Jingchuang has not reached 100 million yuan, compared with its total operating income, it has exceeded 30%. It is a company that attaches great importance to R&D.
Overall, the median R&D expenses of the 27 companies in the first half of the year was approximately 74 million yuan, accounting for approximately 8.9% of the total operating income.
Although there is no clear launch time for the central bank's digital currency, judging from the constantly updated internal testing news, it is expected that the official launch will not be too far away. Affected by this good news, it is expected that the market will continue to pay close attention to digital currency concept stocks in the future, especially core beneficiary companies such as banking IT and payment scenarios. However, in the conceptual realm, many companies are actually related to digital currencies. The correlation between currencies is not large, and investors should remain rational when investing.
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