The liquor industry has continued to develop recently. The liquor sector has risen 9.02% in the past month and 5.51% in the past three days. As of the close of trading on June 4, many stocks such as Dahu Shares, Yilite, and Huangtai Liquor Industry had reached their daily limit. Qinghai Spring, Guangyuyuan, and Shuijingfang rose by more than 7%; Hainan Yedao, Shede Liquor Industry, etc. rose by more than 6%. Among them, the stock prices of Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor Industry, and Shuijingfang hit record highs during the session, reporting at 252 yuan, 234 yuan, and 143 yuan respectively.
The high-end liquor sector continued to rebound last week. Institutional insiders believe that it is mainly affected by the incremental funds from the north, and they are still optimistic about the long-term investment value of the high-end liquor sector. At the market level, the wholesale price of bulk Moutai liquor continued to rise in May. The agency said that Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have solid fundamentals and the payment progress is in line with expectations. Prices and sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival in the second half of the year deserve attention. In addition, Renhuai City's recent "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to fully support the technological transformation and expansion of Moutai Group and its subsidiaries, and promote the early realization of the "two 100,000 tons" goals. Zhongtai Securities believes that this plan clarifies Moutai’s future technological transformation and expansion expectations for the first time. Previously, Moutai planned a maximum production capacity of 56,000 tons. At present, the base liquid has reached the production limit. With clear support from the local government, future technological transformation and production expansion will be feasible. It is expected to speed up implementation and open up space for medium and long-term development. Morningstar data shows that global mid-equity fund UBS (Luxembourg) China Select Equity Fund (USD) slightly increased its holdings of Kweichow Moutai again in April. In addition, northbound funds’ net purchases of Kweichow Moutai in the past seven days have exceeded 1.8 billion yuan.
Sichuan Cai Securities pointed out that with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the value of asset allocation including liquor has become prominent. Recently, the country has effectively controlled the rise in commodity prices. Liquor, especially high-end liquor, is still an excellent sector at this stage due to its low sensitivity to cost fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to high-end alcohol companies with higher annual performance certainty.
In addition, as consumption rapidly upgrades, sub-high-end alcoholic products will continue to benefit. Among them, companies with flexible performance and continuous improvement in operations have received special attention from the market recently. The high-end market has rebounded strongly this year. The revenue of many brands such as Qinghua Fenjiu, Shuijingfang, and Shede doubled year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, ushering in a new development cycle. Guosheng Securities pointed out that as a "growing" liquor industry, the sub-high-end competition pattern has not yet been solidified, and there is currently a situation where multiple forces coexist. Looking forward to the next five years, the industry will expand to a scale of 100 billion, and it is still expected to form 2-3 large single products worth 10 billion.
Huaan Securities analyst literature pointed out that sub-high-end products have been the core source of growth for famous wines and mainstream local leading wine companies in recent years. Overall, leading local wine companies cover multiple price points and accelerate the upward upgrade of their product structure, offsetting the impact of weak growth in mid-range products. There are also differences between individual wine companies. For example, Fenjiu continues to grow rapidly, benefiting from the rapid growth of strategic performance of sub-high-end old wines. At present, Yanghe is gradually reaching an inflection point. Judging from the news, liquor companies have recently entered a period of intensive shareholder meetings. The shareholder meetings of Gujing Gongjiu, Yanghe Shares, Jinshiyuan, etc. have all sent relatively positive signals, and the fundamentals continue to strengthen.
Tianfeng Securities believes that from a price perspective, the price range of high-end wines such as Moutai and Wuliangye has risen to more than 1,000 yuan, driving the sub-high-end mainstream price range to rise to 300-500 yuan, while creating a blank price range of 600-800 yuan. wait. Sub-high-end has huge potential; second, from the demand side, my country's middle class has huge potential for expansion, and the consumption trend of sub-high-end and regionally-dominated wines will continue to increase; third, from the perspective of the competition landscape, the current sub-high-end competition has entered a fierce stage , during the period of stock competition, wine company channels and marketing breakthroughs have become key. (Original title: The liquor sector performs strongly, and competition among sub-high-end products intensifies)
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