China Economic Net, Beijing, July 9th: Recently, the A-share market has experienced violent fluctuations, and structural differentiation has become increasingly fierce. At the same time, sectors such as new energy and military industry are strongly favored by institutions. The market value of CATL has exceeded one trillion, which seems to be a sign of changing times. A microcosm.
In this regard, Yang Yu, a new energy industry researcher at the Great Wall Fund Research Department, said that there are two factors responsible for the recent increase in market prices. First, from a macro perspective, the originally rising U.S. bond yields have fallen, causing A shares to rebound after falling in February. During this period, it was not just new energy that emerged, but also many industries. Secondly, from the perspective of the fundamentals of the new energy vehicle industry, terminal sales data exceeded expectations and penetration rates continued to increase. At the same time, the production progress of the industrial chain is very good, and the future expansion expectations are also very good, indicating a high degree of prosperity. Profits in all aspects are expected to increase significantly. Therefore, the new energy vehicle industry chain is the fastest growing in the new energy sector, which is a fundamental factor in the industry.
Regarding the prosperity of the industry, Yang Yu told a reporter from China Economic Net, "If we look at the next two to three years or even longer cycles, I am very optimistic about new energy, because whether it is new energy vehicles or new energy vehicles, energy power generation, industry trends Very sure, very clear. If we look at next year, I personally will be more optimistic about photovoltaics. Based on the market value space next year, I think the photovoltaic space will be larger, and new energy vehicles will overdraw more growth. This is not a matter of prosperity, but Photovoltaics is a process from low prosperity to high prosperity, and there is still more room."
It is reported that Yang Yu mainly studies the new energy vehicle lithium battery industry chain. Yang Yu said that the core of this is to find a highly competitive target. Whether it is performance leadership or cost leadership, it will ultimately be reflected in market share and profitability. However, performance leadership takes priority over cost leadership, so the leader in the battery segment is the most promising, followed by the leader in the equipment segment, and the leader in each material segment that can achieve cost leadership.
Although the development trend of the new energy industry is very good, we must also pay attention to potential risks. In this regard, Yang Yu said that at this stage, the new energy vehicle industry is less affected by policies than in previous years. New energy vehicles have completed the preliminary consumer education work and entered the stage of continuously developing new models to match various demand types. It is no longer a single price strategy to win. However, since new energy is an emerging industry, its growth rate will inevitably fluctuate, and the industry has received extremely high financial attention. When the growth rate fluctuates, valuation changes will be particularly large, which will inevitably lead to large fluctuations in stock prices and unstable performance. Board features. "I think this is a risk that investors need to pay special attention to. From a research perspective, it is particularly important to carefully select targets and accurately judge the direction of future technological development. In addition, it is also important to have sufficient data." "Understand the company's competitiveness .In place.”
In addition, the military industry is also a major direction that institutions are optimistic about, but it is also relatively complicated. Weng Yuping, a military industry researcher at the Great Wall Fund Research Department, said that in 2015, under the background of the bull market, the logic behind the rise of the military industry sector was asset injection, because many high-quality military industry assets are within the system. Under the general trend of asset securitization, if these assets are injected into listed companies, they will bring great performance flexibility. Later this logic was falsified. In addition, since the military reform began in 2015, some demand has been suppressed, and the industry has also undergone a long period of adjustment.
But starting last year, the investment logic of the military industry began to change. The logic that drives the stock price rise is not imaginary space such as asset injection, but real performance growth. It can be seen that since the second half of last year, the performance of many military industry companies has grown very fast, and most of them can maintain high growth in the next three years. Behind this is the acceleration of equipment installation and the incremental demand brought about by the transformation of the defense industry system from closed to open. It can be said that last year was a watershed in the transformation of military investment logic. The impetus for the rise of the military industry sector has turned to performance growth.
Judging from the characteristics of the military industry, this industry belongs to the manufacturing industry. The military industry also has the characteristics and laws of the general manufacturing industry. At the same time, the military industry also has some particularities compared with the general manufacturing industry: there are many types of weapons and equipment, and production and delivery are often multi-batch and small-batch production; weapons and equipment are highly specialized and have long development cycles; the operating environment of weapons and equipment is complex, and the Reliability and stability requirements are high, and the price sensitivity to accessories is low; Enterprises engaged in military product research and production must obtain relevant qualifications.
Weng Yuping believes that there is still considerable room for improvement in my country's national defense modernization level, which is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, the proportion of new equipment is relatively small; second, there is still considerable room for improvement in the level of national defense modernization. 2. The level of informatization is low. In the next three years, new aerospace equipment will be installed at a high speed, the entire aerospace industry chain will maintain high prosperity, and companies with a better position in the industry chain will achieve higher growth. In addition, companies that benefit from the improvement of the overall informatization level of the industry will also have better investment opportunities.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Weng Yuping said that the basic direction of the military industry in the first half of the year has been verified, and the market will gradually gain confidence in next year's performance. Since many companies in the industry will continue to maintain high growth next year, these companies will have forecasts for the second half of the year. The converted market value will be converted to next year's performance, thus driving the sector upward.
标签： #Military #Energy #Sector #Photovoltaic #Leading
评论列表