[Abstract] In the era of mobile terminals, the user landscape has changed. In the context of super giants competing for territory and traffic, this listed company that has tasted the dividends of Internet traffic has more or less dissected itself in the army of cash loans, immigration, car loans, and blockchain. ,D.
Zhang Qin, author of Tencent’s “Prism”
In 2011, after experiencing some setbacks in product promotion, Han Meng, the founder of 2345 (.SZ), realized that the bosses of the computer city, technicians who repaired computers, and even the network administrators of Internet cafes were all their channels. Control users. .
So, after trying various methods such as sending mouse pads, giving gifts, and installing promotion rebates, Han Meng created a promotion platform called "Ace Technician Alliance" with more than 8 million users.
From then on, countless software starting with 2345 began to stubbornly spread virally from the hands of computer store owners, repairmen, and Internet cafe network administrators in small counties, riding on the information highway.
In that era of information explosion and traffic being king, 2345 quickly occupied the high ground, with more than 260 million "mid-to-low-end users" who were unfamiliar with computers.
Five years later, what Han Meng may not have expected is that as a subset of the above-mentioned users: they are users between the ages of 28 and 30, in second-, third- and fourth-tier cities, and mid- to low-end cities. -Income, recent graduates, young blue-collar workers, and some small businesses. Individual industrial and commercial households - including, of course, computer city maintenance workers - will enable 2345's cash loan product "2345 Loan King" to contribute more than 110 million yuan in profits to listed companies, an increase of 16 times year-on-year, becoming the world's first cash loan product loan products. Fourth in the loan industry.
In 2017, Qudian, which was only three years old, was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The cash loan industry has a market value of 63.6 billion yuan, which is at its peak. Then things changed - in December, the "Notice on Standardizing and Rectifying the "Cash Loan" Business" was issued, and the cash loan industry was almost eliminated.
Because they heard the "rumour" in advance, Hanmeng's team quickly suspended the cash loan business, which ranked fourth in the industry, after discussion.
But it didn’t take long before 2345 announced its new move: starting to deploy the blockchain.
For a time, there were endless criticisms in the market: Is it chasing the trend, or is it another transformation of the bubble?
In the era of mobile terminals, the user landscape has changed. In the context of super giants competing for territory and traffic, this listed company that has tasted the dividends of Internet traffic is more or less dissected in the army of cash loans, immigration, car loans, and blockchain. ,D.
traffic suppression
"The pain of cutting the skin."
Looking back on the cash loan rectification four months ago, Han Meng used these four words to describe his feelings.
Cash loans, also known as loans (payday loans) in the United States. The term of this kind of personal short-term credit loan is generally 7-30 days, the amount is less than 1,000 yuan, and the annualized interest rate is between 100% and 200%. A parabola was drawn in China from 2016 to 2017.
Since it was renamed from "Sui Credit" to "2345 Loan King" in May 2016, the revenue of this cash loan product has increased by 2075.93% and 866.22% respectively in 2016 and 2017, and has been used by about 3,000 cash loan companies. Become one of the top companies in the industry.
Han Meng regards his promotion platform as the "root" of 2345's business.
Han Meng designed a model called the "Ace Technician Alliance". This business model is actually very traditional, that is, signing a contract with a company that needs software promotion and charging promotion fees. Ace Alliance members can obtain corresponding promotion benefits through offline promotion of user installations.
These products with promotion needs include 2345’s own products such as 2345 Website Navigation and 2345 Movie King, as well as products from other companies such as iQiyi, Baidu Mobile, and 360 Browser.
After trying various methods to promote the product without success, Han Meng set his sights on store owners who sell computers, computer repairmen, Internet cafe administrators, company network administrators, etc. Because in his opinion, these were the people who controlled the PC user channel at that time.
"If each installed computer can get a rebate of 5 yuan, a computer repairman who repairs 500 computers a year can get 2,500 yuan a year. This is true for most workers whose monthly salary is only two to three thousand yuan. "." In third-tier cities, this is already a considerable amount of income, not to mention that installing software is a piece of cake for them. "
Picture: A computer store in a county in Hubei Province that joins the 2345 Ace Alliance
"China's cities are very scattered." Han Meng knows very well that there is a huge gap between life in second-, third- and fourth-tier cities and first-tier cities. There are many people here who cannot be taken care of by traditional mainstream technology and finance. Second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier products are mainly targeted at “mid- to low-end users” who live in second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier cities and are unfamiliar with the Internet.
Therefore, relying on this seemingly clumsy and inefficient promotion method, the software named "2345" quickly, unintentionally, yet pervasively and annoyingly entered countless people's computer desktops. .
"Actually, living is not easy." Han Meng told Tencent's "Prism" that the reason why he has been able to survive in the cracks of Internet giants over the years is mainly because he created the Ace Alliance, that is, the second, third, and third 4. Fifth user. resource. From 2345 to now, we still have two to three hundred city managers responsible for promotion.
cash loan results
As the borrowing needs of the broadest group of people are fully unleashed, the cash loan business market has been fully developed. In the dividend period of online lending, both Internet giants and financial institutions are competing to seize this opportunity.
The huge traffic supply and huge user accumulation have allowed 2345 Daiwang to have a lower customer acquisition cost and a wider initial user scope than other cash loan platforms from the beginning.
2345, which has positioned itself as "mid- to low-end users" from the beginning, has a highly consistent user profile with its products in the field of cash loans.
Han Meng described to Tencent's "Prism" that the characteristics of this group of users are: between 28 and 30 years old, in second-, third- and fourth-tier cities, low- and middle-income, newly graduated students, young blue-collar workers, and some small individual businesses - - Naturally, network administrators and computer store repairmen who used to distribute 2345 software everywhere have also become users of this business.
Financial report data shows that in 2016, this small cash loan product of 500-5,000 yuan for individual users attracted more than 7.8 million user registrations, a year-on-year increase of 730.67%.
At the same time, "2345 Loan King" began to take off in 2016 after losing nearly 7.32 million yuan in 2015, with total loans reaching 6.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2164.98%, and the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company reached 110 million yuan. . By the end of 2017, this profit figure had reached 412 million yuan.
According to the "Ranking of New Scenarios in the Consumer Finance Industry" released by Wangdaizhijia and Yingcan Consulting in January 2017, "2345 Loan King" ranked fourth in cash loan scenarios, second only to Yirendai, Ping An Puhui and Xin Xin. And after getting rich.
Picture: 2345 Loan King’s income in the past three years
Tencent's "Prism" learned that for a loan of 5,000 yuan, the service fee that users need to pay to 2345 Daiwang is usually 250 yuan to 310 yuan. In addition, 30-day interest of 90 yuan to 150 yuan is added. Based on this calculation, the monthly comprehensive interest rate of 2345 loans is 6.8%-9.2%, and the annualized interest rate is 81.6%-110.4%.
High-yield cash loans are disrupting a mutual financial industry that is losing steam. The huge trend has attracted countless people to take risks and follow them like ducks. On the other hand, the influx of players has increased the traffic cost and customer acquisition cost of cash loans.
According to data from the National Mutual Finance Commission, as of November 19, 2017, the National Internet Financial Risk Analysis Technology Platform has identified 2,693 operating cash loan platforms.
"Everyone has a hunch that the chaos cannot continue, but until the boots of supervision fall off, everyone is lucky. If you can make a profit, make money as soon as possible, and if you can't make a profit, retreat immediately."
Picture: From the report of Ronghui Jinke Think Tank
In November, Han Meng, who has a keen sense of smell, smelled news of market changes while communicating with regulatory agencies, small loan companies, banks, trusts, etc.
Han Meng made a prompt decision and quickly suspended the cash loan business one week before "the other boot dropped."
On December 1, 2017, the "Notice on Standardizing and Rectifying the "Cash Loan" Business" kicked off the rectification work of cash loans. Risks exploded after accumulation, and the stampede in the field of cash loans began.
"In this industry, many users share debts, and the number of lending platforms between three and five is considered healthy. Most people borrow money from several or even dozens of platforms." Han Meng feels that after the policy was introduced, the dismantling The model of patching up walls and borrowing new ones to pay back old ones is no longer sustainable, and most users are facing the problem of broken capital chains.
After November, 2345 Loan King’s NPL ratio also began to soar.
The 2017 annual report shows that the net profit of listed company 2345 in 2017 increased by 49.23% year-on-year, reaching 947 million yuan. But at the same time, due to the provision of asset impairment provisions for loans and advances, the amount reached 966 million yuan. Compared with the asset impairment provision of 32.1184 million yuan in 2016, the amount of bad debt provisions in 2017 was 2,345, a year-on-year increase of 30 times.
This set of data also reveals the tip of the iceberg that high profits in the cash loan industry cover up high bad debts.
Tencent's "Prism" learned from Han Meng that 2345 Loan King's risk control team, including preliminary reviewers and auditors, only has a total of more than 20 people. In 2017, the daily number of loans processed by 2345dai.com once reached 150,000. pieces. More than 95% of 2345's loans are mainly reviewed through automated methods.
"The rectification of cash loans in December last year was a baptism for us. We used to say that the core of Internet finance is risk control capabilities, but this is just talk. It is useless to emphasize that you have not experienced it." This time, after personal experience Through experience, you can see how important this risk control is, and it is a painful experience. " Han Meng said.
New outlets or new channels?
The originally booming cash loan market was poured cold water on by regulation. Restless desires have nowhere to go, and another trend called blockchain connects “just right” at this time. As a result, the cash loan industry has staged a major migration to the blockchain.
In January this year, Zhang Zhong Financial Services Group reached a strategic cooperation with the Blockchain Credit Alliance to participate in the blockchain layout. In the same month, Zhang Jun, founder and CEO of Paipaidai, announced that Paipaidai would invest 1 billion yuan in the Smart Finance Research Institute in the next three years to establish four major research centers including artificial intelligence, blockchain, financial cloud, and big data.
Abandoning the cash loan business with good profit returns, 2345 began to invest heavily in blockchain, triggering widespread market discussion about its blind pursuit of trends.
But Han Meng has always insisted that Prism himself is not a follower. He said that the reason for deploying blockchain is because the Internet traffic dividend in the first half of the year has ended, and the second, third, fourth and fifth must stabilize the "roots".
Since 2017, Han Meng’s sense of anxiety and crisis has become increasingly intense.
This is because the popularity of mobile terminals and e-commerce has continuously weakened the original channel effect and communication effect. This is for 2345, which is positioned as a traffic platform. It equals the lack of foundation for transformation and realization.
Traffic platforms chase trends and have natural advantages. 2345 plans to use blockchain technology to change the original user expansion channels and allow users to promote spontaneously.
In early 2018, 2345 announced that it would upgrade the original alliance to the Planet Alliance, which means that users can become members as long as they purchase Octopus Planet (a private cloud launched by 2345). After becoming a member, the value of the traffic contributed by their daily surfing will be collected and valued through the POB algorithm, and then corresponding rewards - point stars will be generated.
In this process, Octopus Planet will rely on the large platform of Planet Alliance to conduct commercial cooperation with Internet companies that require traffic. As traffic contributors, users can participate in the sharing of Star Alliance points. In other words, all users’ daily online behavior will be rewarded with income.
Data disclosed by 2345 shows that the first batch of Octopus Planet products were sold out within 12 seconds of being launched. The sales of the first batch have not yet been announced. However, if the booking volume of 1.81 million units is calculated based on the selling price of 998 yuan per unit, the total amount of Octopus Planet’s first batch of bookings is 1.806 billion yuan, which is almost the same as the cash loan income in 2017.
The platform layer envisioned by Han Meng can first acquire a large number of users through the Planet Alliance, then build a virtual city and ecological platform with tens of millions of users every day, and then introduce more product needs.
After formulating a plan to expand traffic entrances, Han Meng plans to use car loans and commercial loans as new ways to monetize traffic.
As members of the Ace Alliance, computer store and mobile phone store owners and repairmen from 500 to 600 counties and cities in the second, third, and fourth tiers across the country built billion-level traffic entrances on the second, third, and fourth floors 7 years ago. . Now, these 8 million members are still a group of people that Han Meng "can't let go".
"In the past, when we were in the Ace Alliance, the users we faced were computer stores and mobile phone stores. Most of them were individual industrial and commercial households with business licenses, but when they needed capital turnover, it was difficult to obtain loans through other channels. Money Take Here we are.” So, Han Meng planned to launch 2345 Business Loan King for this group of people.
At the same time, 2345 also launched 2345 Auto Loan King. The loan amount of this project is 20,000-250,000 yuan, and the annualized interest rate of the product is about 15.88%. The commercial loan amount is 5,000 yuan, the repayment period is 1-3 months, and the annualized interest rate is 14.4%.
In this regard, Xue Hongyan, director of the Internet Finance Center of Suning Financial Research Institute, who has conducted in-depth research on 2345 Internet finance business before, believes that the interest rates acceptable to car loan and commercial loan customers are relatively low. Low, thus raising questions about the risk control level of lending institutions. Very strict. These two types of businesses have obvious offline attributes, and good risk control requires a lot of offline investment.
"On the one hand, offline and online gameplay are different, and it is difficult for most companies accustomed to Internet operations to adapt; on the other hand, offline operations themselves will generate new operational risks. In order to control the operation, "risks are high, and it is necessary to increase Great risk control efforts. Large investments will eventually lead to large investments and low gross profits, which will eliminate most companies with insufficient refined management levels. "He said.
For tool products, users can leave immediately after use. It’s easy to get traffic, but hard to monetize it.
This listed company, whose products have strong tool attributes, has survived in the fierce competition with companies such as 360 Navigation in the era of information explosion. But after capturing user value in the cash loan wave, how can this traffic platform survive under the new user and traffic logic? This is the most important question for founders to think about.
This article is an exclusive contribution to the "Prism" column of Tencent News. The copyright belongs to Shenzhen Tencent Computer System Co., Ltd. and may not be reproduced without authorization.
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