generalize
1. Brent oil prices quickly approached the $115 mark overnight. Driven by the sharp rise in oil prices, the commodity futures market still rose today, with coal ETF () and steel ETF () bucking the trend and closing down. Due to significant price comparative advantages, rising oil and gas prices may drive increased global coal demand, and the gap between coal supply and demand may further widen.
2. After the market closed yesterday, the chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that the real estate bubble and the momentum of financialization have been reversed; in the past two months, mortgage down payment policies in many places have been marginally loosened, and the policy signal for marginal improvements in the real estate industry chain has been established. In the context of "stable growth", in the short term, we can still focus on varieties related to the real estate industry chain.
3. The pharmaceutical sector has experienced three quarters of rapid decline. Its valuation has been at the bottom in the past decade, and its investment performance-price ratio is outstanding. The market has entered a performance window period. The pharmaceutical sector is performing well and its growth value is expected to be recognized by the market. Medical insurance policies such as centralized procurement and cost control are expected to be gradually digested by the market. The excessive pessimism in the early stage is expected to be corrected, and the long-term growth value of the medical sector still exists. You can pay attention to pharmaceutical ETF (), biomedicine ETF (), and innovative drug Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen ETF ().
The market opened higher today and then fell back in shock, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. On the market, Sino-Russian trade concept stocks were strong throughout the day, with nearly 20 stocks in this sector hitting their daily limit. Oil and gas exploration concept stocks benefited from the surge in international oil prices and continued to strengthen. In addition, coal, natural gas, traditional Chinese medicine, tourism, hydrogen energy and other sectors are also actively rotating during the session. Although the index is weak, the short-term sentiment is relatively active, with nearly 80 stocks hitting their daily limit and nearly 30 stocks trading steadily. Chip, military, lithium battery and other track stocks fell into adjustment. Overall, stocks fell more than they rose today, with more than 2,600 stocks falling in the two cities. Today's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market turnover was 1.0101 billion, an increase of 112.1 billion from the previous trading day. Northbound funds sold a net 731 million yuan throughout the day, including a net purchase of 800 million yuan on the Shanghai Stock Connect and a net selling of 1.531 billion yuan on the Shenzhen Stock Connect.
Today’s northbound capital inflows and outflows, data comes from WIND
Affected by geopolitics, the market has recently continued to see changes in the supply and demand pattern of related cyclical products. Brent oil prices continued to surge by more than 9% overnight, with oil prices quickly approaching the $115 mark. Driven by the sharp rise in oil prices, the commodity futures market is still rising today, with coal, steel, non-ferrous metals and other futures prices rising one after another. Driven by rising prices, the Coal ETF () rose 2.36%, the Steel ETF () rose 1.26%, and the Nonferrous 60 ETF () ended flat.
Market performance of some commodities in today’s commodity futures market, data from WIND
Cinda Securities pointed out that rising oil and gas prices may lead to an increase in global coal demand, and the gap between coal supply and demand may further widen. Due to its significant price comparative advantage, the unit calorific value price of coal is significantly lower than that of oil and natural gas. The expected rise in oil and natural gas prices is expected to tilt global energy consumption towards coal. However, Russian coal faces the problem of lagging infrastructure construction such as railways and ports. It will not be transferred to the international coal market in the short term, thereby exacerbating the contradiction between global coal supply and demand and pushing up international coal prices.
However, it should be pointed out that as coal prices continue to rise, possible industrial policy risks need to be guarded against. Last Friday, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document stating that the medium- and long-term trading guidance price of thermal coal is 570-770 yuan per ton. If coal prices deviate too much, special attention is needed.
For the steel industry, eight departments recently jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating the Comprehensive Utilization of Industrial Resources", proposing the implementation of industry standard management for the comprehensive utilization of scrap steel and other renewable resources, and encouraging large-scale steel and other enterprises to cooperate with renewable resource processing enterprises. Build a comprehensive large-scale scrap steel and other green processing and distribution centers. Hwabao Securities believes that the current supply and demand side of the domestic steel market is still generally weak, but demand in some downstream industries (such as infrastructure) has shown marginal improvement; iron ore prices on the raw material side have entered a weak trend, and the industry has entered a new cycle (carbon control + ultra-low emissions + Mergers and reorganizations + discouraging exports), the competitive landscape has improved, and supply adjustment capabilities have been enhanced.
Nowadays, targets related to the real estate industry chain also have good market performance. The Infrastructure ETF () rose 0.72%, the Building Materials ETF () also rose 0.42%, and the Financial ETF () bucked the trend and ended lower, rising 0.29%.
Today's rise in the real estate industry chain is partly due to the Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's statement after yesterday's close that the momentum of real estate bubbles and financialization has been reversed, and partly due to the fact that mortgage down payment policies have been loosened in many places over the past two months. sign. Combining the two, the policy signal for marginal improvement of the real estate industry chain has been established. In the context of "stable growth", in the short term, we can still focus on related varieties of the real estate industry chain, such as infrastructure ETF (), home appliance ETF (), building materials ETF (), etc.
The pharmaceutical sector has experienced three quarters of rapid decline, with its valuation falling back to 34.7 times. It hit the bottom again in 2018, the lowest level in the past decade. The investment value for money is outstanding. From the perspective of chip structure, public fund positions are also at a low level in the past decade. Multiple factors support the pharmaceutical sector at the bottom stage.
from the wind
From a fundamental perspective, annual medical insurance fund expenditures increase by about 10%, and industry growth is guaranteed. In the pharmaceutical "14th Five-Year Plan", compared with the "12th Five-Year Plan", the pharmaceutical industry has been upgraded from a people's livelihood industry to a people's livelihood and national security strategic industry, and the status of medicine has been significantly improved. In addition, on February 21, the Beijing Municipal Medical Insurance Bureau and three other departments issued the "Notice on Standardizing and Adjusting the Price Items of Some Medical Services" to standardize and adjust the prices of 63 medical service items in public medical institutions. At the same time, 16 assisted reproductive technologies were included in medical insurance outpatient clinics. . repay. The move reflects the government's strict regulation of fertility support. In the future, assisted reproductive technology is expected to be more widely supported by payers, and industry penetration is expected to increase rapidly.
Looking at the market outlook, the market has entered a performance window period. The pharmaceutical sector is performing well and its growth value is expected to be recognized by the market. Medical insurance policies such as centralized procurement and cost control are expected to be gradually digested by the market. The excessive pessimism in the early stage is expected to be corrected, and the long-term growth value of the medical sector still exists. exists, and policies to encourage medical innovation and private medical treatment are still clear; the situation of normalized epidemic prevention and control is clear and further under control. The recovery of inpatient medical care and the recovery of daily needs are the main themes of growth in the pharmaceutical industry. Investors can pay attention to pharmaceutical ETF (), biomedicine ETF (), and innovative drug Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen ETF ().
That’s it today, all white~
risk warning:
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标签： #Coal #Pharmaceutical #Sector #Expectation #Rise
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